WaPo is out with a poll showing the results of the near-foregone conclusion general election contest of Governor George Allen and Governor Tim Kaine, showing a dead heat tie at 46%.
While most of the poll focused on the match-up of the two political heavyweights, WaPo was kind enough to gage the primary fields for Republicans and Democrats, as well as a hypothetical match-up of Tim Kaine and Jamie Radtke.
In the Republican nomination battle:
George Allen: 54%
Tim Donner: N/R
Jamie Radtke: 2%
Corey Stewart: 3%
Bob Marshall: 4%
Earl Jackson: 1%
David McCormick: 3%
Someone else: 3%
Would not vote: 2%
No opinion: 28%
If you’re not George Allen…ouch. If you’re the candidate who’s out spending their fundraising by 2:1 only to be out-polled by 3 people, 2 of whom aren’t even in the race (yet), double ouch.
Likely match up of George Allen and Tim Kaine:
Allen: 46%
Kaine: 47%
Would not vote: 3%
No opinion: 6%
Unlikely match up of Tim Kaine and Jamie Radtke:
Radtke: 29%
Kaine: 57%
Would not vote: 4%
No opinion: 9%
As if that weren’t enough bad news, WaPo polled the current approval rating of George Allen’s performance as Senator, the centerpiece of the Radtke campaign strategy. The result? 54% approval, only 24% disapproval and 23% had no opinion.
There’s is a glimmer of good news for Radtke in the poll, her favorables outweigh her unfavorables, unlike the previous PPP poll indicated. However, 79% of respondents still had no opinion.
Is it a super early/meaningless poll? Yes. Does it reflect the likely outcome of the nominations? Yes. Should it have an impact on campaign strategy? Almost definitely. Will it? Doubtful.
Update: Check-out Ken Falkenstein’s answers to my questions
