Nature, and apparently the 2012 US Senate race in Virginia, abhors a vacuum. So then there were five…again.
Following the recent withdrawal of a certain unnamed candidate from the US Senate race, Delegate Bob Marshall is now entering the fray.
The question everyone seems to be asking is: why? And why so late, just five months before the primary? Does he really think he can win? Is he just trying to bring attention to his aggressive legislative agenda (or perhaps just his personhood bill)? Does he have a personal agenda regarding one or more of the other Senate candidates?
No one knows for sure. Marshall is a famously mercurial personality, defined largely by a limited but passionate group of followers – and equally passionate opponents. One loyalist, herself a delegate candidate, told me during the campaign that she would “walk on her knees” for him. He also froze many potential contributors. In dialing for dollars, I encountered on several occasions funding prospects who were holding out for Bob to come to the altar.
Marshall is often the smartest guy in the room, with an encyclopedic knowledge of legislative protocol and a deep understanding of complex issues. That knowledge is matched by a unshakable commitment to social issues. In fact, Bob said many months ago that he would enter the race only if he perceived insufficient commitment to, and articulation of, the pro-family agenda among the other candidates.
Given that all the other challengers to George Allen are strongly pro-life, one would have to question whether his statement was simply the pretext for a decision he had already made, at least in principle. And history demonstrates that when the economy is the main issue in an election, it is in effect the only issue, or at least the overwhelmingly dominant one. I can testify to the reality that there has been remarkably little interest in social issues among Virginia’s activist conservatives in this election cycle.
Based on my conversations with him, Bob believes he can perform at the same level in a primary as he did in the 2008 convention, when he came within an eyelash of knocking off Jim Gilmore. But primaries are very different animals than conventions, which generally favor more conservative candidates. There is a reason Allen stacked the RPV deck to assure a primary.
Other than the obvious and well-chronicled challenge of qualifying for the ballot, his primary strategy is so far confusing. He told The Hill that Allen’s “record is going to be out of sync with people in the tea party and other conservatives,” and pointed to Allen voting to increase the debt limit and for hate crimes legislation, adding that “that sort of thing will burn the social issue people.” On the other hand, he told Roll Call that his campaign would be about “what I could do vis-à-vis Tim Kaine…I’m not contrasting myself to any Republican candidate.”
At least one other candidate’s campaign has been based primarily on depicting Allen as the embodiment of all that is wrong with the GOP. Republicans must remember that the ultimate goal is to beat Tim Kaine – and his best friend Barack Obama – and while even stark contrasts drawn with the frontrunner are legitimate and instructive, a full-on scorched earth campaign is unwise at best, particularly for candidates who hope to have a future in politics. It is undeniable that Virginia is ground zero for this most important election of our lifetimes, with both parties believing they must win the Commonwealth to control the Senate…and the White House.
One thing seems certain. Marshall’s presence will suck the air out of the room and further divide an already riven tea party base. At the same time, history and my own personal experience have proven that it is extremely difficult to flip the supporters of candidates who entered the race well before you. Even the most rational appeals to people committed to other candidates are ultimately seen by such supporters as requiring an admission that they were wrong. And people simply do not like to admit they were wrong.
In the end, Marshall’s entry might well lead to the withdrawal of one or more of the challengers. And given a level of stature, experience and political accomplishment that far exceeds the other challengers, he will invigorate and dominate conversations (and there have been very few of late) about a primary challenge to the overwhelming favorite.
